Roger Federer vs Yoshihito Nishioka: US Open first round preview and prediction

(Photo credit: Marianne Bevis)

Five-time former champion and world #2 Roger Federer will begin his quest to claim a sixth title in New York when he takes on Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka. The Swiss star has long been a massive fan-favourite at the US Open, but has not lifted the title since 2008, though he has twice made it to the final since then. This year, expectations are not particularly high for Federer though he has made a habit of defying them of late. But will he come undone against Nishioka?

History

This will be the first meeting between Federer and Nishioka. But it is unsurprisingly Federer who is the vastly more experienced of the two, not least because he is more than 14 years older than the Japanese. Federer has a career record of 1165-255 and has won 98 titles, including 20 Slams. At the US Open alone he has won 82 matches. Nishioka, in contrast, has just 26 victories to his name at Tour-level and has never reached a final.

Last time out

Federer’s Wimbledon defence ended in the disappointment of a quarterfinal loss to Kevin Anderson. It was a defeat made all the more galling by Federer’s early dominance, he at one point led 6-2 7-6 5-4 and held a match point. But the South African fought back to win 2-6 6-7 7-5 6-4 13-11. Federer returned to action in Cincinnati, scoring some good wins, including against Wawrinka, but he offered little resistance to Djokovic in the final, losing 4-6 4-6.

Nishioka, who has been battling this year to recover his ranking after a lengthy period on the sidelines thanks to an ACL injury, lost in the first round at Wimbledon to 2017 finalist Marin Cilic. He then reached the quarterfinals in Los Cabos where he lost to eventual champion Fabio Fognini. He followed that by qualifying into the Canadian Open, but lost in the first round to Pablo Carreno Busta before failing to qualify for the Cincinnati Masters.

How do they match up?

In order to win this match, Nishioka will have to find a way to contain Federer’s attack. That is much easier said than done. No player brings more offensive variety to the court than the Swiss. His serve is one of the best in the game, in large part because of its accuracy, as evidenced by his run of 100 straight holds of serve in Cincinnati. It stretched from the 2014 final to the 2018 final when it was finally broken by Djokovic.

His forehand is also a lethal weapon and his backhand is much-improved since the addition of Ivan Ljubicic to his coaching team and the adoption of a larger racquet face, which has allowed Federer to come over the ball more often. He also volleys excellently. Nishioka, for his part, brings a good forehand to the match and impressive foot speed. But he will have to be more aggressive than he usually would. Allow Federer time and the chance to attack, and the match will be over swiftly.

Prediction

Federer may only be a distant third favourite for the title in New York this year, but he is the overwhelming favourite ahead of this clash and rightly so. He remains one of the world’s best players and, in truth, is some way out of Nishioka’s league. The Japanese may yet prove himself a fine player, and indeed was impressing before his injury last year, but he has never suggested he has the quality to really trouble someone of Federer’s stature. The second seed in straight sets.