Kane, Aguero, Salah, Lukaku: Who will be Premier League top scorer this season?

As we go into the winter break, Jon Mackenzie looks at the top scorers in the Premier League and predicts who will finish top at the end of the season.

With the Premier League passing the third-way stage with this tranche of midweek fixtures, this season is well and truly underway.

Given the fact that the top six have been at a frantic pace since the opening day, the race for the prize of top scorer in the Premier League is already looking like it will be exciting to follow it through to its conclusion.

Surprisingly enough, the leader at this point is a wide forward rather than an out-and-out forward. Playing in a fairly central position, the Egyptian has managed to pick up 10 goals so far – a number matched by last season’s winner Harry Kane.

With strikers from the other top six clubs still within touching distance, Jon Mackenzie looks at who will come out top of the Premier League scorers come the end of the campaign.

  1. 6 Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United)

    At the beginning of the season, Manchester United's recently-arrived Belgian shot to the top of the goalscoring charts and looked as though he was going to take the competition by storm.

    Since then, Romelu Lukaku's goals have dried up - not scoring a goal in eight goals. 

    Lukaku's career has been punctuated by lean periods and so Manchester United fans won't be panicking just yet. However, this could affect his standings in the Premier League standings come the end of the season.

    The Belgian international also has well-documented goalscoring problems against top six sides which could also hold him back in the scoring standings. 

  2. 5 Alvaro Morata (Chelsea)

    When Manchester United sabotaged Chelsea's chances of getting Romelu Lukaku after Antonio Conte had dispensed with the services of Diego Costa, it looked as though the Blue's title chances were over before they were even begun.

    Since then, though, the Italian has had the last laugh. With eight goals to his name, Morata has managed to match Lukaku's goal total so far and at a much quicker rate - 113 minutes per goal as opposed to Lukaku's 158 minutes per goal.

    The Spaniard is a more rounded player than his compatriot Costa, as shown by the fact that he has notched up four assist in addition to his goals: a figure which also puts him level with Lukaku despite having one game fewer.

    Given his function as a hold-up player, Morata sacrifices a level of prolificacy. However, he will be up towards the top of the list by the time the season comes to an end. 

  3. 4 Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)

    Manchester City's Brazilian debutant is yet to lose a game for the club, despite having clocked up 19 appearances for them in all competitions.

    His scoring record in the Premier League isn't too shabby either. Eight goals in only 704 minutes in the league means that the Brazil international is scoring at a rate of one goal every 88 minutes - a figure which is only bettered by his fellow forward at the Etihad, Sergio Aguero.

    For the youngster to top this prestigious list by the end of the season might be asking too much at this point. 

    Needless to say, the one thing which stands against him achieving this is the fact that he is being rotated regularly with Aguero.

  4. 3 Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)

    When the tousle-headed Egyptian forward arrived at Anfield at the beginning of the campaign, few Liverpool expected him to blow the club's scoring record out of the water so comprehensively.

    This he has done, though, with his ten goals in 13 games in the Premier League taking him beyond Robbie Fowler's record of two decades ago.

    Ten goals is enough to see him sitting top of the top scorers table at this point of the season. However, with Liverpool blowing hot and cold with very little indication which way they will go next, it's hard to see Salah holding onto the top spot until the league's conclusion.

    Salah is also a wider player who, despite his tendency to find himself in central positions as a result of his pace, could score fewer as a result.

  5. 2 Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

    Sergio Aguero hasn't been the top scorer in the Premier League since 2014-15 when young upstart Harry Kane usurped him at the top of the table.

    Regardless of this fact, Aguero has an edge on the player from North London - he scores at a much faster rate. Incredibly, the Argentine has scored a goal every 77 minutes this season.

    The only thing that can hold Manchester City's pocket dynamo back is injury. Having struggled to play an interrupted season since his career began, if he can stay on the pitch for the majority of the remainder of the season, he could challenge Kane for the top spot.

    Under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City have been prolific, with five goals or more being scored in four of their thirteen games so far. On this kind of run, Aguero will hope to be in amongst the challengers for the top scorer by the time May comes around.


  6. 1 Harry Kane (Tottenham)

    It's hard to look past the Premier League top scorer from the last two seasons when picking this year's winner.

    Until this week, Harry Kane had always scored more than once if he made it onto the scoresheet in this year's iteration of the Premier League. With four braces to his name, the England international subsequently added two in two to take his tally to ten for the season.

    Despite his obvious prolificacy, Kane has played 1126 minutes for Spurs this season - a total higher than any of his closest rivals bar Romelu Lukaku who has 1260 minutes for Manchester United so far. 

    This gives Kane a less impressive figure of 113 minutes per goal for the season, leaving him comfortably in the wake of Sergio Aguero's 77 minutes per goal.

    With so much playing time, though, the worry will be an increased tendency to pick up an injury.

    Even despite Spurs' recent slump, Kane is so important to their attack that it's hard to argue against him continuing his four-season-long spell as a 'one-season wonder'. 

    Who will finish top scorer in the Premier League this season? Get commenting in the section below

  1. Poll: Who will finish top of the Premier League goalscoring table in May?

    1. Harry Kane
    2. Sergio Aguero
    3. Mohamed Salah
    4. Gabriel Jesus
    5. Alvaro Morata
    6. Romelu Lukaku
    59 votes
    Share Your Result

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Jon Mackenzie

Jon Mackenzie is the Football Editor at RealSport.

Regularly appearing on talkSPORT radio, his work has also featured in The Economist, The Blizzard, Tifo Football and on the Futbolgrad Network.

A UEFA and Premier League-accredited journalist, Jon also founded A Team of John O'Sheas podcast and hosts it every week.

Follow him on Twitter @Jon_Mackenzie