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Supercoach and Stats Watch

Weekly stats and Supercoach wrap and advice for the round ahead. Looking at Guns, cheapies, POD's, BE's and Buy Hold and Sells. 


Overall Stats Watch

Points – Widdop (38)

Tries – Godwin, Radrada, N.Ross, L.Mitchell (4)

Try Assists – C.Walker (6)

Line Breaks – Peachey (6)

Runs – Moylan (57)

Run Meters – T.Trobojevic  (625)

Hit ups – Gallen (47)

Offloads – Tupou, Nofoaluma (11)

Tackles – McCullough (164)

Round 3 Supercoach Standouts Watch

In a very low scoring round for Supercoach there were only 3 triple figured scores and not even any players in the 90’s.

Gutherson, Papalii and Rapana. Three names that wouldn’t surprise you if they cracked the century, making the fact that there were only three of them even more exciting. 

Clint Gutherson – $393,100 ($56.900 Price Rise)

Round 3 points – 105

Gutherson’s key appeal is his by coverage and kicking duties, regardless of his attacking stats. His main attacking stats on the weekend were a try, line break and line break assist. Well done to the 5.5% of you who took a punt on his form from the end of last year. I wasn’t brave enough, although I chose Norman over him instead so happy with that, bar last rounds non-inclusion. Gutherson is certainly a ball running player, his move to 5/8 saw his ball playing skills increase dramatically and is looing a very well rounded player. A 3 round average of 85 points is placing him with an 8 break even, even after a $56,900 price rise from last round. It’s hard to decide if he is a buy this week or not, Norman is probably offering better value but it’s going to be hard to pass him up on current form for too long before the byes.

Josh Papalii – $462,500 ($42,600 Price Rise)

Round 3 points- 112

Papalii has looked like an absolute machine in the opening 3 rounds, pumping out base and attacking stats, running into and through players for fun. His performance on top of base stats included a try that he charged over Luke Brooks for, 2 line breaks and a line break assist. Papalii sits with a 3 round average of 89, still with reasonably low break even of 34. Certainly with this form he will be playing Origin again making him quite a difficult purchase for non-owners with the numerous options available. I think for now you’ve probably missed the boat on Papalii, his price is already quite high due to a barrage of attacking stats and it’s never too early to look at bye coverage. There are probably better options that will be discussed later on; it’s hard to see his form drop too hard though for the punters out there.

Jordan Rapana – $458,100 ($21,700 Price Rise)

Round 3 score – 136 (top for the round)

2 tries, 2 try assist and three line breaks sum Rapana’s performance up perfectly. He looked dangerous every time he had the ball in his hands, with the majority of his runs over 8m. Rapana sits with a 3 round average of 79 and a break even 21. His other two scores were quite respectable for a winger notching up 50 each time. His price will likely rise and stay high if Canberra continue to bounce back to form. Probably not a buy though, you cant really count on Rapana being consistent, the same with almost every winger in the competition. Keep an eye on him though along with Canberra’s schedule and form, could be a great POD later on in the season.

The $450,000 Watch

Guns. Who is rising? Who is staying steady?  Who is falling?

Walker $478,900 ($34,000 price rise), Papalii $462,500 ($42,600 price rise) and Jack DeBelin $452,100 ($27,500 price rise) RISING

All three of these players have burst into the elite price category of Supercoach following round 3 price rises. Expect all three of them to stay in and around this range from now on most likely. Walker and Papalii have BE’s under 40 while DeBelin’s is at 66. Anyone jumped on them early enough? Walker for me last week, had the Captain on him.

Cameron Smith $507,200 (-$16,500 price drop) STEADY

Despite a price drop Smith remains over the $500,000 mark and he is most likely set to stay that way with a break even of only 60 this week. Absolut gun, no questions asked, keep to the end. He is staying steady with a 69 game average despite the opening score of 38.

Other players in the Steady category:

Shaun Johnson – consistent with a high sealing and the kicking duties back… if u didn’t start with him and aren’t going to be getting him in, what are you doing?

Tedesco for now (121 BE).

Croker 82 in first game back, look to snatch him up when you can.

Bryce Cartwright $497,200 FALLING

Carty is predicted to drop a whole heap of cash when he gets back on the park, we could even see him drop below $400,000 if he doesn’t turn his form around. I sold last week, was considering keeping until he was ruled out of the game. If you kept him after last week, probably stick with him, he really hasn’t had much of a chance to play footy so far this season. Break even 169.

Other players in the falling category:

Gallen, 64.3 average. Wait for his price to drop a little more due to reduced minutes and pick him up if you’re feeling brave on the injury front. I’ll be picking him up over Origin in my plans at the moment baring injury.

S. Burgess. Reduced minutes for a 60 average, stick strong with him or pick him up when his price levels out. A big game and attacking stats can’t be too far away.

Ryan James. Same story as Burgess. Although not with the minuets drop, he never played as many. Hard to back up last year’s attacking stats but still a solid base stat option.

Fifita: Same story as James, expect him to bounce back soon enough though.

Merrin: Eased back into the NRL, expect him to be back to playing close to the full 80 minutes soon enough. His price wont drop too dramatically from here.

Joseph Leilua: seeing nowhere near the base or attacking stats he produced last year. Stay clear, for now anyway.

Cash Cow Watch

50k+

Suli, Gutherson and Lamb all rose over $50k. Geez I don’t know weather picking C.Walker over Lamb was the right choice.

40K+

Keary, Peter Mata’utia, Hess, Kelly, Papalii, McInnes, Brailey, Uate all rose over $40k. I missed out on Uate as I went with lower end cheapies in CTW/Wing, he will probably be a roller coaster ride for owners but so far has looked quite good.

Moga and Pritchard were two of the more popular cheapies that made little cash, both under $14K. Particularly with Pritchard’s injury’s he is quite likely a sell. Keep chugging away with Moga, attacking stats will come.

BE Watch

Early on in season so only looking at initial rises for now. (Played 2 games)

Norman BE -50.

R.Jennings BE -38.

Kikau BE -13

T. Davis BE -12

Capewell BE -10

Priest BE -6

J. Wighton BE -4

B. Burns BE -2

POD Watch (ownership of under 10%)

Paul Gallen is only owned by 10% of Supercoaches. He will be too crucial over origin and will most likely be a 60+ average player despite reduced minutes. Please have and injury free season!

Cody Walker, amazingly still owned by under 7% of players, one including me. His early season form has indicated he will be a key player for South Sydney and I’m fully expecting him to keep up a gun average for the halves from what he has shown. Please don’t do a Milford last year after his brilliant start!

Cameron McInnes, the one that got away. I was tossing up all of pre-season between smith and McInnis. I can’t say I’m disappointed with Smith but McInnes is looking like a gun. Owned by 6% of players and still with a low BE, I just wish there aw a way to fit him in.

Clint Gutherson was spoken about above and has been arguably the POD of the year so far. He is only owned by 6% and most coaches will be ignoring him this week for Norman. Do you think he will keep this up?

Alex Johnston. Very interesting POD, one for the very brave. I can’t bring my self to do it but since moving to fullback he has scored 91 and 69 and has a -23 BE. Awkwardly priced at around $300k, he could sky rocket in price and benefit for Inglis’s injury. History says he won’t, but it also says he has the potential too. Definitely one for discussion.

Mitchell Pearce. 74.3 game average, 105,85 and 37 are his scores. If the roosters keep going the way they are he could be a serious gun option in the halves. One to watch for me, I don’t think I can jump on just yet and he has an 85 BE so you’re able to wait. He is only owned by 3.4% of players! Can the roosters keep up this attacking form though?

Jack Wighton is only owned by 2% of coaches due to him missing the start of the season. He has since come back and scored 91 and 78 and has a break even of -4. Very tempting, I didn’t own him at any point last year as I don’t see him in the gun category, but there’s no reason why he couldn’t be. Great running game, but you’d probably have to bring him in this week before his initial price rise rather then a wait and watch.

Crocker and Slater, Guns of the game. Both potentially should end up in your side but they have only played 1 game each and looked good so you cant wait and see. Both only owned by 2% due to their delayed starts.

John Sutton is owned by only 1.6% of coaches, slipped under the radar with an average of 70. Could be one for the byes and if not sooner with price rises to come.

P.S. PODene is coming…..

Trade Watch

Buy’s of the week (Only focusing on 2 game players this early in season)

Who to buy before their first price rise? Trades to money early on in the season!

Norman by far in a way is leading the most popular trade for the week and that wont change unless he isn’t named again. He accounts for 19% of trades so far. Unfortunately for owners like me who had him from the start of the season he will no longer be a POD. But you can’t really complain with a predicted $75K price rise this round.

Robert Jennings shapes as the best cheapie of the round with a -38 BE. Braidon Burns is also an option but Jennings is expected to rise by more.

I would advise to wait another week on Ponga, you never know with injury particularly with the Cowboys at the moment. Job security is looking alright at the moment so with there being a fair few cheapies on offer for the week after, I do understand the plan of getting him in now.

Wighton and Johnston see above. And Reynolds has had a solid start, has the goal kicking duties and a juicy POD at 1% ownership. Although Origin and Injuries are the main concerns when considering picking him.

Sells of the week for the most popular players

Hayne is again at the moment the most traded out player this week, most people will be looking to go to Norman. And most likely so are the other 6% of Keary owners who are trading already.

Cartwright is probably a sell due to him loosing so much cash, although if you didn’t sell last week you are probably looking to hold on and use him as a POD. I’m definitely not against this, I think he will come good and be a solid performer. Although that might be when he’s under $400k and a bargain for everyone else.

I’m probably going to sell J.Brom, I was really hoping to hold on but I think there are too many other good front row options or cheapies to cop his price drops at this stage of the season.

F. Winterstein, is a Hold/Sell. Sell when you get the chance to bring in a chepaie but let him sit there until then, he won’t lose you money. You never know, he could score a try!

Elgey is definitely looking like a sell; he originally had 55 points but got downgraded to 41 just before lockout. BE at 39 you can wait, I’ll be waiting till I can upgrade to a keeper.

Holds for the most popular players

Why are coaches selling Thurston this week??? You’ve already copped a 40k price drop, you’ll be regretting the trade when he bounces back as he always does to be one of the best, if not the best half options in the game. Same as Smith, no reason to sell.

S. Burgess, he will come good, his scores aren’t horrific but he isn’t getting minutes. Wait and see, surely a massive game is coming.

Tedesco. Don’t sell despite high BE, he is a gun, 56 is a team that got smashed proves that.

Fifita, just haven’t seen the attacking stats come as of yet. Probably will lose more money and isn’t seeing massive minutes. His PPM is still great, another case of don’t sell a gun.

Merrin. Spoken about above, will come good. Will be a huge buy in a couple of rounds.

Mostly guns on the list this week with a lot of POD’s and Mid-rangers doing well. However they are guns for a reason and will outscore pretty much anyone who you trade in for them by the end of the season.

Good luck this round with Supercoach. If you have anyone you’d like me to analyze for next week or any questions you’d like me to answer for this week leave a comment and I’ll be sure to get back to you.

Who are your standouts or who are you ready to punt after two weeks of action? Let us know in the comments below.

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