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NFL Week Seven: Best Bets


Week Six didn’t get quite go as planned. The Colts still managed a backdoor cover despite running what has to be the worst Swinging Gate play ever attempted while the Browns hung around with the Broncos thanks to Peyton Manning’s worsening throwing arm and the Broncos total inability to run the football. At least the Bengals did what good teams are meant to do and dispatched an also-ran team with ease. There was also a magnificent performance from Phil Rivers that pushed Green Bay to the very edge and signs of life from the Miami Dolphins, or at least a dead cat bounce, in their first game under Dan Campbell. There was also a great comeback in Seattle for the still undefeated Panthers and the Jets, who travel to Foxboro this week, continuing their impressive start to the season as they hung 34 points on a good Redskins defense and improved to 4-1 under first-year head coach Todd Bowles.

Week Seven sees the second of three games at Wembley this season, with Jacksonville nominally hosting a banged-up Bills team. We also have a number of quality teams on a bye, which makes for a tough week in Fantasy as well as for me picking games. Denver, Green Bay and Cincinnati have the week off along with Chicago. This is a problem as I’m 12-10-1 with these 4 teams so far. So I am left struggling to find 3 bets I really trust and am willing to put my own money behind this week.

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

This is the only game I feel good about. A 5-1 Falcons team with extra rest and time to prepare against the 1-4 Titans who are starting to show the weaknesses you’d expect from a team who picked 2nd overall in May. The Falcons might have suffered their first loss last week in the Superdome to New Orleans but they were still able to move the ball comfortably, it was just a few fumbles that put them in a hole. Devonta Freeman and this running game continue to impress me and worry the rest of the NFL. Meanwhile, the rookie frailties of Marcus Mariota are starting to come through after his hot start. The Titans offense has given the ball away 11 times, good for 4th in the league including 5 interceptions.

New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

This game is going to see 2 of the best units around go head to head. The Jets defense is 3rd in takeaways with 15, against a Patriots offense which leads the league with just 3 giveaways which include the single interception thrown by Brady last week which Julian Edelman had 2 chances to catch. On 3rd down the Patriots are converting a league-leading 50.9% while the Jets are holding opponents to a 3rd best 32.4%. The Jets have conceded the fewest yards per game, the Patriots have gained the 2nd most. I think you get the point that these teams are pretty good at what they do. While those two units go at it the difference could be a sneaky good Jets offense led by Ryan Fitzpatrick. It used to be that the Jets offense was a total stay-away in fantasy football, now it has legitimate players like Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory. Sure, there are few home-grown talents given all the investment Rex Ryan made on the defense during his tenure, but Todd Bowles and General Manager Mike Maccagnan (both in their first year in the job) have put together a good crop of options that should do well enough to keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) over DETROIT LIONS

Detroit might have finally got their first win of the year but they were far from convincing against Chicago last week both on the field and with their coaching decisions. Jim Caldwell’s decision to kick a field goal when down by 7 with under 3 minutes to go was awful, and he was only given a reprieve by John Fox’s ultra-conservative attempt to run the clock out. And even after taking the lead with just 30 seconds to go the defense let the Bears move into field goal position and send the game to overtime. There are bright spots for Detroit. Ziggy Ansah is starting to fulfil some of his raw athletic potential and last week Calvin Johnson turned into Megatron for the first time this season, but the Lions’ middling run defense is going to get a stern test from Adrian Peterson and company, one that I think they will fail.

Rest Of The Picks:

  • TNF: Seattle (-6.5)
  • JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+4) over Buffalo Bills
  • Houston Texans (+4) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
  • INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-4.5) over New Orleans Saints
  • WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Cleveland Browns (+6) over ST LOUIS RAMS
  • Oakland Raiders (+4) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
  • NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) over Dallas Cowboys
  • CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) over Philadelphia Eagles
  • ARIZONA CARDINALS (-9) over Baltimore Ravens
  • NO LINE – Pittsburgh @ Kansas City – This all depends on Big Ben’s status. Check my twitter on Sunday for the pick.

Last Week: 4-9-1 (1-2-0) Overall: 40-45-4 (8-10-0)

For more NFL news and comment follow Toby Durant (@TDOnSport)!

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Toby Durant

A passionate and opinionated writer, I am currently the NFL editor for RealSport. However, I also contribute to F1, WWE, Football, and other sections of the site, and I have covered the NFL International Series for RealSport and previously contributed to SB Nation.

 

I also have 10 years playing and coaching experience in American football, starting at the University of Nottingham and including a stint as defensive coordinator at Oxford Brookes University. I may be a Patriots fan but all aspects of the sport interest me, from guard play to special teams.

NFL Week Seven: Best Bets

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