In the preseason, the Houston Texans had so many wide receiver injuries, they signed Bruce Ellington on a Wednesday and lined him up as a starter on Thursday. On opening day, they had DeAndre Hopkins and a bunch of other guys catching passes. Ellington was hurt, too.
Ellington is back and has caught some passes. Braxton Miller came back, and he caught some passes. Then, Will Fuller came back, and he caught some touchdown passes. In fact, he caught four in two games, making him a popular waiver wire pickup and streaming option for Week 6.
But does that mean he should start ahead of your other receivers? Let’s take a look.
How he did it
This doesn’t look good. Fuller has four touchdowns in only six passes. That is what we like to call an unsustainable trend. Other NFL fantasy writers might say he is primed to regress to the norm. The odds say he can’t keep up that pace.
If Fuller caught those six passes on 20 targets, we could say he has the potential to put up numbers based on that. But he had only nine targets over the two games despite being on the field for almost every passing play. Can he sustain NFL fantasy-worthy production on that target count?
Last season, Fuller gained 635 yards on 47 receptions, but only scored twice. His reception percentage was only 51%, so maintaining his current 67% is not a lock, either.
The X-factor is rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. Almost half his passes have gone toward DeAndre Hopkins, the only starter who has been out there every game. Now that is not a bad strategy for the young passer, but as he gets more familiar and comfortable with Fuller, and is possibly coached up to spread the ball more, the number of targets could always go up.
So… you’re saying…
There are too many unknown variables and too small a track record to say Will Fuller is a must-start. He is not a big enough target to suspect Watson looks for him in the end zone. There are taller and bigger receivers at the quarterback’s disposal. Fuller could well end the season with four touchdowns.
Will Fuller is definitely not a must-start. I am not sure at this point if he is even a must-add. Of course, anything is possible when your team is playing the Browns, but Hopkins and tight end Ryan Griffin are more likely to catch touchdown passes if the Browns’ fantasy patterns hold true.
Playing the odds, sit Will Fuller unless you believe lightning can strike three times.
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