Another 1-2 week with my best bets thanks to the Packers offensive line struggles and Denver’s poor road game. However, I was .500 overall and have kept my head above water through three weeks, so it’s not all bad.
This week there is once again no line available for Minnesota as a quiet quarterback controversy starts to brew following Case Keenum’s great game against the Bucs in Week 3.
Speaking of great games in Week 3, the Jaguars are road favorites in their return to American soil after a big win in London, as are the Saints following their first win of the season against the Panthers.
This week sees the Saints and Dolphins head over to London while the Broncos return home for an AFC West battle with the Oakland Raiders. The biggest line of the week is in Seattle (-13) who host the Colts, while the tightest is the AFC South game in Houston, who take on Tennessee. Who am I backing this week? Let’s take a look. As ever, the home teams are in caps.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
Tennessee shocked a lot of people with their win over Seattle on Sunday, but it was the kind of offensive performance that many theorized in the preseason, as the Titans physically dominated Seattle’s defense.
It’s the kind of performance that can travel, and with Houston’s defense still struggling to get back to the level it has been at over the last few years we could easily see DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry running all over them again.
Houston’s rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson looked like the truth in Foxborough on Sunday and put up a lot of points, but the Titans defense is good and gets pressure up front.
This line is effectively a pick ‘em, and despite going on the road I am enamored with what I’ve seen from the Titans so far. They should move to 3-1 this week.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-7.5) over Buffalo Bills
On our Week 2 NFL podcast I called the Bills “frisky”, well it looks like they are more than that after beating Denver on Sunday.
However, this is Atlanta in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the Falcons don’t mess around at home. Their team speed is wildly impressive on turf, and with their running game firing on all cylinders, I expect a comfortable win for the Falcons. Buffalo’s one road game this year was a poor offensive showing in Carolina, and the Falcons are far superior to the Panthers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets may have got on the board with a win over a very poor Miami side last week, but the Jaguars have been very, very good defensively, and that is death to any momentum a Josh McCown-led side has.
The 2017 Jaguars have the best cornerback tandem in the NFL (sorry Broncos fans) in Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye, and they have a defensive line that has dominated shaky fronts this year. Calais Campbell, Dante Fowler, and Yannick Ngakoue are going to have a field day in MetLife Stadium, and when playing with a lead this year Blake Bortles has looked for all the world like a reasonable NFL quarterback.
Rest of the picks
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Bears
Saints (-3) over DOLPHINS
Panthers (+8) over PATRIOTS
BROWNS (+3) over Bengals
Rams (+6.5) over COWBOYS
RAVENS (+3) over Steelers
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Giants
Eagles (+1) over CHARGERS
49ers (+7) over CARDINALS
BRONCOS (-2.5) over Raiders
SEAHAWKS (-13) over Colts
CHIEFS (-7) over Redskins
Last week: 7-7-1 (1-2-0)
Overall: 23-21-1 (3-6-0)
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