While UFC Fight Night 119 is headlined by the ever-intriguing battle between Derek Brunson vs Lyoto Machida, we’ll be skipping that fight in favor of some other more favorable potential returns from Brazil.
Here are your three best underdog bets heading into UFC Fight Night 119:
1 Maia to submit Covington
Demian Maia vs Colby Covington is easily the most fascinating bout across the entirety of UFC Fight Night 119.
Maia returns to the UFC's octagon for the first time since being absolutely outclassed by UFC welterweight champion, Tyron Woodley. Now, Maia still thinks that a title is within his reach one day. However, a loss against Covington this weekend will surely diminish his chances of ever reaching the top of the ladder again.
Covington has been cruising through fights on the way to his new position as a serious threat to the best contenders in the welterweight division. He smashed Dong Hyun Kim, Bryan Barberena, Max Griffin and Jonathan Meunier to put together an impressive four-win streak.
While the narrative is interesting, it's the matchup inside the cage that makes this one very exciting.
Maia is a renowned jiu-jitsu specialist and probably the best we have ever seen inside the UFC. He uses chain wrestling techniques to take opponents down to the mat before he slices through their guard like butter and applying what is surely one of the nastiest chokes in the game right now. He hasn't just been dominating low-ranked guys, either, he's used this same technique to make short work of Carlos Condit, Jorge Masvidal, and Gunnar Nelson recently.
Of course, it all went sour when Woodley stuffed every single one of Maia's 24 takedowns at UFC 214.
Covington represents a similar challenge to Maia. "Chaos" is an excellent wrestler who mainly uses offensive wrestling techniques to slam opponents down to the mat or drag them down by grabbing one of their legs if he can't secure a body lock. Once there, he really has no transition game. In fact, he sits in his opponents half guard and rains down heavy strikes onto his opponent with no care. It usually works too. He'll either throw so much volume that the referee steps in, or enough to influence the judges.
So, where are we going with all of this?
If Colby Covington wants to take Maia down to the mat and carelessly attempt punches from dangerous positions; we'll see how that turns out for him. Chances are, Maia will get caught underneath Covington momentarily before sweeping him and ending up in a dominant position.
Bet: Demian Maia
$10 to return $21.00
Read more: Demian Maia vs Colby Covington
2 Munhoz to defeat Font
Whatever you do, don't sleep on this battle between Rob Font and Pedro Munhoz at UFC Fight Night 119.
Font and Munhoz are two of the divisions real up-and-coming contenders and whoever wins this contest in Brazil is likely to score a top contender in the division as their next opponent.
What's interesting about this contest is that despite both of them being incredibly well-rounded, they still have strong advantages in particular areas.
For example, Rob Font's combination striking is some of the most fluent and seamless there is in the entire organization. Funnily enough, some of the others that come to mind are also bantamweight fighters such as Dominick Cruz, T.J. Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt. While Font remains a peg below these three, his striking is not just crisp, but deadly too.
Munhoz is an effective counter puncher who is more than able to win fights that are contested entirely standing up. But possibly his greatest strength is his ability to transition and cause frustration for opponents on the mat. He can latch onto a scrambling opponent with ease and squeeze away at the neck for a submission victory.
Font is the favorite going into this contest, but it's really hard to split the two. I've got it as even going into this one and for that reason, I recommend betting on Munhoz who is a moderate underdog.
Bet: Pedro Munhoz
$10 to return $26.30
Read more: Rob Font vs Pedro Munhoz
3 Lineker vs Vera to finish early
This is an example of yet another 'sleeper' fight on this card in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
John Lineker was (and still is) one of the most feared bantamweights on the planet as he entered the fight with T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 207. Lineker had picked up huge wins over the likes of John Dodson, Michael McDonald and Ian McCall on the way to a six-fight win streak. Once he met Dillashaw, though, it was all exposed. Because, after all, Lineker just storms forward before trapping opponents against the cage. Once he gets them there, his techniques are just as predictable, as well. He opens up with a left hook to the body before swapping up high and targeting the head. For the most part, it works. Especially if an opponent believes they can beat him in a throw-down.
Marlon Vera's shot at John Lineker represents the biggest opportunity of his career. He's on a three-fight win streak but, admittedly, Brian Kelleher, Brad Pickett, and Guangyou Ning are nowhere near the level of Lineker. But to their credit, Pickett and Kelleher are both tricky customers inside the cage and Vera finished them before the fifteen minutes were up. Vera's most recent outing was with Kelleher and he submitted him in 2:18.
Now, the bookmakers have set the total rounds line at over/under 1.5 rounds and if we're betting on it being finished in the first two rounds there is some excellent value. With Lineker's fight-finishing power and Vera's tendency to finish fights, as well, this is making for a great value bet this weekend.
Bet: Total Rounds - Under 1.5
$10 to return $24.00
Read more: John Lineker vs Marlon Vera
Want to share your opinion? Why not Write For Us?