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New York Yankees vs New York Mets Lineups: Preview and prediction (August 17, 2017)

The Mets look to avoid a Subway Series sweep tonight in Game 4.


The Yankees beat the Mets 5-3 in last night’s game. 

Neither team’s offense was in particularly top form, with both lineups stranding five or more runners on base. Most of the early scoring came off of sacrifice flies and solo home runs, including one exceptional long ball hit by Aaron Judge, who launched a ball 457 feet into the left field upper deck in the sixth. 

After exchanging one-run innings for most of the game, the Yankees finally jumped ahead for good in the top of the seventh after Didi Gregorius doubled home two more. The Yankee bullpen then shut down the Mets’ lineup, with Adam Warren and Dave Robertson combining for three innings, allowing only one hit and striking out five. 

Game 4 Starters – Luis Severino (RHP) vs Steven Matz (LHP)

Severino has been the Yankees’ unlikely ace in 2017 after last season’s struggles, and besides a rough start against Boston last week, he has shown no signs of wearing down. In July he posted a 2.58 ERA, his best month to date. He’s also been a top-five AL pitcher in K/9 (10.40), K/BB (4.37) and WHIP (1.11). This is Severino’s first full season in the Majors, and although the team has stated he is not on an innings limit, he has already more than doubled his total innings pitched from last season. Some wear and tear could be imminent. 

Matz has had a tough and injury-shortened season so far for the Mets, posting a 5.54 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He comes into tonight’s game off a four-game losing streak in which he’s allowed 16 earned runs in 19 innings. He’s still looking to regain some of the success he had last year, but his decreased strikeout rates and increased walk/home run rates show that something’s not working. 

Lineups

Yankees LineupHome RunsBatting AverageOn-Base Percentage
Gardner, LF19.248.343
Hicks, CF12.279.385
Judge, RF37.291.420
Sanchez, C21.274.351
Frazier, 3B3.217.333
Gregorius, SS18.308.334
Headley, 1B7.274.354
Torreyes, 2B3.293.313
Severino, P0.000.000
Mets LineupHome RunsBatting AverageOn-Base Percentage
Granderson, RF18.228.331
Cabrera, 2B9.259.328
Cespedes, LF15.278.331
Conforto, CF26.282.388
Flores, 3B14.281.317
Smith, 1B1.190.190
Rosario, SS2.240.269
d’Arnaud, C10.225.272
Matz, P0.150.150

Who’s Hot, and Who’s Not

Gary Sanchez really seems to have things figured out as we enter mid-August, batting .319 in his last 14 games with eight extra-base hits including five home runs, and he has reached base safely in 10 consecutive games. Judge has shown signs of breaking his extended post-All Star slump, putting up an OPS of .983 in his last seven games, in spite of setting the MLB record for consecutive games for a non-pitcher with a strikeout last night.

Frazier’s struggles as a Yankee continue as his low power numbers fail to make up for his less than impressive batting average of .209 on the season. 

The Mets’ outfield has really been picking things up lately, with Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, and Michael Conforto all sporting slugging percentages over .500 and combining for 15 home runs and 30 RBIs in their last 15 games. Highly touted rookie Amed Rosario looks to be figuring things out, posting an OPS of 1.011 in the past week. 

On the other side, Travis d’Arnaud has been struggling, gathering only six hits in his last 40 at-bats for a batting average of .150 over that span. 

Prediction: Yankees 7 – 4 Mets

The Yankees have had issues driving in runners in scoring position as of late, but I have to figure that will end soon, and with a struggling pitcher like Matz on the mound for the Mets, it looks like tonight could be their night. Still, the home team’s lineup figures to make noise against Severino, who has entered uncharted territory in terms of workload. The Yankees are rolling having won the first three games of the series so far, and I think this gives them the definitive edge. 

Where to watch

Tonight’s game will be broadcast on YES and WPIX, and streaming on MLB.TV for out of market subscribers. 

 

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New York Yankees vs New York Mets Lineups: Preview and prediction (August 17, 2017)

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