Check out our research into Premier League players' expected goals and what we can expect from these FPL assets in GW24 and beyond.
What is xG in football?
Expected goals (or xG) is a term that is thrown around quite a lot in football punditry and analysis these days, but what exactly is it?
Expected goals measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play.
This value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken.
xG is measured on a scale between zero and one, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time.
Expected goals measures the quality of the chances and the likelihood of scoring, but, it does not predict the expected outcome of the game.
FPL xG underperformers
Some popular FPL assets have underperformed in terms of xG this season.
These players are getting chances and in positions to score more goals than they have done.
Though this may seem like a bad trait, it can be a case of getting a bit of luck and the goals will start flooding in, which makes xG underperforming FPL assets desirable, as most FPL managers are not currently targetting them.
Harry Kane (£12.3m)
Spurs striker and England international captain Harry Kane currently has an xG underperformance of 3.44.
Kane has seen an upturn in form since Antonio Conte took charge, scoring four goals in his last six Premier League appearances, but it looks like these numbers will soon improve significantly if the number ten can get the rub of the green.
Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m)
Next up is another pricey forward, Cristiano Ronaldo, who currently has an xG underperformance of 2.55, having scored eight goals since returning to Old Trafford in the summer.
CR7's movement is second to none, which naturally provides him with more chances than other strikers in the league. We believe that as Manchester United grow in confidence, with a run of favourable fixtures, Ronaldo's goal output will increase.
Ilkay Gundogan (£7.2m)
Manchester City midfielder Ilkay Gundogan, who is currently owned by just 3.2% of FPL Managers, has underperformed his xG by 2.24 goals this season.
Of course, by bringing in the German international you are running the risk of Pep Roulette, but this differential could prove to be a very valuable one in the weeks to come.
Check out our top FPL GW24 Differentials here!
Sadio Mane (£11.7m)
Finally, we have the 2022 AFCON Champion, Sadio Mane, who has an xG underperformance of 2.60 this season.
Mane, owned by only 2.1% of managers, can be a brilliant alternative to the likes of Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and Diogo Jota (£8.5m) once he returns to action.